In each of these special elections, the incumbent party won.

Membership in the incumbent party is open to those who hold office.

If the future looked better than the present, the incumbent party kept the presidency.

And in both years, the incumbent party was thrown out.

Only in Britain, where the economy has been much better, did an incumbent party win a new term of office.

In each of the other three elections (1976, 1980 and 1992), the incumbent party lost.

Largest swing where the seat was held by the incumbent party.

And in six of those, the incumbent party lost.

In times of peace and prosperity, the incumbent party is almost always rewarded.

But the view of the current situation is much better than that of the future, bad news for the incumbent party.