But Western diplomats say the number may be far higher.

"The security situation over all is much better now than a few months ago," a Western diplomat said.

The three Western diplomats said they were particularly concerned about the election.

"What they are trying to do is kill all the small leaders," a Western diplomat said.

Western diplomats seem at a loss to explain China's hard line.

"The open question is how long the country's students and young people will be patient with what's going on," said a Western diplomat.

Western diplomats believe that it could come at any time.

Western diplomats say they have little reason to question the figures.

"I think peace is a good subject in a country where war has been going on for so long," said one senior western diplomat.

"They may not know what to do," said one Western diplomat.