Can South succeed at this point against best defense?
Across the region, the South is succeeding by doing a lot of things well.
Without supplies and the military wherewithal the South cannot succeed in the field.
So it seems that South can succeed if he plays with great brilliance.
He was right about this, for a spade lead would have allowed South to succeed in two ways.
But can South succeed against four clubs in the East hand?
Seven diamonds is even better, by about 5 percent, because South can succeed against all normal breaks.
Again South would have succeeded by playing for split honors.
So South succeeds after any club lead, even the deuce.
After a neutral lead, like a spade, South would probably have succeeded.