cyclical upswing
cyclical upturn

There are early warning signs of a cyclical upswing in inflation.

But analysts note that the cyclical upswing is more a response to a general economic expansion across the nation than to any specific local government actions.

While puzzled by the development, most economists continue to expect the strength of the cyclical upswing will inevitably lift inflation.

Huge capital investments have been made in these markets over the last few years, and a cyclical upswing overseas will lift soft drink revenues, they said.

"A cyclical upswing in the inflation rate later this year has now become very likely," said the university's Center for International Business Cycle Research.

Q. People say the American economy has moved into a phase of sustained growth, whereas in Europe the danger is that it's simply another cyclical upswing.

This gold rush is the third for San Francisco since the 1960's and is perhaps the most fecund and feverish of those cyclical upswings.

"The real question is, 'Will incremental demand from China, India and other places cause sustained higher commodity prices or is this just a cyclical upswing?"'

But this cyclical upswing in Europe, in contrast to the softening in the United States, is accentuating labor bottlenecks.

"It's just a cyclical upswing," said William Belchere, head of Merrill Lynch's fixed-income research in Singapore.

They say Japan is merely embarking on its third cyclical upswing in a decade, pulled by new growth from its No. 1 export market, the United States.

"The economy is in a very strong cyclical upswing," said Walter M. Cadette, a senior economist at the Morgan Guaranty Trust Company.

"It is mostly a cyclical upswing, but it is more than that," said Anne Wibble, chief economist at the Swedish Federation of Industry.

Mr. Greenspan said that demand for durable goods is still growing in some sectors, especially civilian aircraft, and that there had been no speculative building up of inventories or cyclical upswings in either inflation or inflation psychology.

In many countries employers' organisations originated, often in periods of cyclical upswings in economic activity, with the intention of providing protection against onslaughts upon the position of employers and the undermining of their prerogatives, especially from trade unions.

"It is evident," the university's Center for International Business Cycle Research concluded, "that the leading indicators of inflation are still locked in cyclical upswings and continue to point to a cyclical upturn in U.S. inflation this year."

"To be sure, the US is a long way from enjoying anything approaching a normal cyclical upswing, but the deterioration in market sentiment in the US has been overdone, particularly as the Fed has been far from idle.

"Governor Bush has developed an economic program that will be good for the country whether the current cyclical upswing continues or the economy falters," said Michael J. Boskin, a Stanford University economist who was President Bush's chief economist and is now advising Governor Bush.

'There are strong benefits to come from the cyclical upturn.'

Adding to the cyclical upturn, India's foreign exchange reserves have grown to more than $100 billion.

Significantly, the decline resists cyclical upturns around Christmas, and has been a steady since last year.

"If you want to play the cyclical upturn in technology, why buy Intel instead of Samsung Electronics?"

Mr. Pulling said the improvement in India's fortunes reflected more than the typical cyclical upturn.

"We feel the current levels of inflation and economic growth are an aberration," he said, "and only a cyclical upturn within a long-term cyclical decline."

Ms. Kristiansen of Dean Witter said, "I don't think we're going to see a big cyclical upturn."

A report from J. P. Morgan suggests that British Airways is the first stock to buy for the cyclical upturn.

Lately the cyclical upturn in automotive demand, coupled with G.M.'s improved cost controls, has kept the company in investors' good graces.

On Wall Street, however, there is concern about whether that cyclical upturn, because of the rise in interest rates, may be weaker by the prime selling season next spring.

All that helps explain why auto makers opened their purses so widely for 1994, when it became evident that the cyclical upturn in vehicle buying would be sustained.

But Mr. Tietmeyer cautioned that a cyclical upturn would not solve structural problems in the economy, and he renewed calls for budget cuts and reductions in taxes.

It also reflects a move by money managers to buy commodity-related stocks that stand to benefit from a whiff of inflation as well as a cyclical upturn in the economy.

Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, and other Fed officials are increasingly convinced that the improvement in productivity growth reflects structural changes in the way businesses operate, not just a brief cyclical upturn.

Now, they say, Mr. Thaksin is getting credit for a cyclical upturn, as some say Bill Clinton did when he presided over a recovering American economy after the first President George Bush.

"Throw together a cyclical upturn because of better rains, better prices in commodities, the restructuring process," he said, "and all of a sudden little bits of sales are turning into great amounts of profits."

In the late Monday announcement, it said that "further cost reduction from the restructuring would be largely offset by additional expenses or deferred as the company positions itself to maximize the sales growth in the marine industry's cyclical upturn."

THOUGH magazines are facing perhaps their most clouded business outlook in decades, executives at a conference said yesterday, the problems confronting the industry bring with them opportunities to strengthen operations to prepare for the inevitable cyclical upturn.

"It is evident," the university's Center for International Business Cycle Research concluded, "that the leading indicators of inflation are still locked in cyclical upswings and continue to point to a cyclical upturn in U.S. inflation this year."

"We're involved with what looks like a textbook cyclical upturn in the United States economy and in the global economy," said Allen Sinai, chief global economic strategist at Decision Economics, an economic forecasting firm in New York.

After being negative on Home Depot for the last two years, "I am getting more bullish on the stock for the next 12 months," Mr. Bolotsky said, "because I think we are going to get a cyclical upturn in consumer durables spending."