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Perhaps more important, there are still signs of credit stringency in the premium rates companies here and abroad must pay to borrow money.
Other paths to the "unavoidable impoverishment" of Americans, he said, may include higher interest rates, credit stringency, more inflation, tax increases, Governmment spending cuts and rising unemployment.
In the prepared text of a speech to the Money Marketeers of New York University, he added that the restraint in demand needed to reduce the trade deficit and help stabilize the dollar will "ultimately fall to higher interest rates and credit stringency."
"We know that the credit stringency problem exists, but it is nearly impossible to anticipate whether it is a major obstacle to recovery or a third-order problem," said Stephen McNees, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, who has studied forecasting trends.