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I think monetary conditions will become tighter, probably through a combination of quantitative tightening and low interest rates.
The temptation for quantitative tightening in emerging markets suddenly becomes abundantly clear.
Investors will also need to think with great care about QT – quantitative tightening.
Tagged with china, inflows, interest rates, quantitative tightening.
Quantitative tightening in China.
It is, in effect, a form of quantitative tightening that hurts the banking system at its most vulnerable point – the need for long-term retail deposits.
It can siphon inflationary cash out of the system by requiring the commercial banks to lodge deposits at the Bank - quantitative tightening.
"Quantitative tightening is working.
Quantitative tightening versus quantitative easing, on live TV.
Tagged with Capital controls, currencies, emerging markets, germany, inflation, quantitative tightening, us, Yield.
"Quantitative tightening" has begun.
Arguably, more quantitative tightening moves to come — including possible yuan appreciation — but not necessarily direct interest rate hikes outright.
Tagged with china, federal reserve, inflation, qe2, QT, quantitative easing, quantitative tightening.
These mean that the US is unlikely to engage in any more quantitative easing and may start quantitative tightening at some point next year.”
Quantitative tightening through lending curbs and reserve ratio hikes is working and will remain the main policy tool. '
The more the West pursues quantitative easing, the more the emerging world, via capital controls, will pursue quantitative tightening.
Which seems to imply that quantitative tightening (or QT) is coming to the People’s Republic of China very soon indeed.
While the country has raised interest rates more than most, it has also managed to prevent its currency, the Brazilian real, from strengthening thanks to a multitude of quantitative tightening measures.
The official line is that these gilts will eventually be sold back to the private sector, as QE makes way for quantitative tightening (QT), but this is unlikely.
The so-called quantitative tightening approach (or, anything but lifting interest rates) has been publicly voiced as preferable by Chinese monetary officials, since it avoids encouraging hot money inflows into the region.
And while quantitative tightening of policy may continue through steps such as reserve ratio hikes, it still looks likely to slow given the threatened U.S. recession and concern about slower growth in China.
The US will continue its QE2 program until it meets its objectives, and the EM central banks will continue to counter QE with QT (quantitative tightening).
Other than a release of oil stocks, developed countries could resort to yet another round of monetary easing, to which emerging markets will respond with quantitative tightening, price controls and subsidies, said analysts from HSBC.
Thanks to quantitative tightening and other unconventional measures – including, for, example, an increase in the use of controls to limit capital inflows – inflationary pressures both in China and across the emerging world more generally have eased.
